Joe Wikert's Publishing 2020 Blog

The Evolution of Content Consumption

Eric Shanfelt's article in the latest issue of Publishing Executive magazine is called Publishing in a Fragmented Online World.  Here's the excerpt that got me thinking:

How can we get our content to our readers however they want to get it?  Does a reader want to get our latest content by visiting our web site?

These questions are intertwined and I'd argue the answer to the second one is "no."  Are you familiar with that saying that, "the best camera is the one that's with you"?  The same logic applies to reading.  A book is great, my Kindle is nice but my iPhone is always with me so the bulk of my content consumption happens via that small screen.

Here are some of the more noteworthy ways my reading habits have changed over the last few years:

iPhone, not the Kindle.  OK, I prefer to read a lengthy book on my Kindle, but that's about it.  A year ago I liked the Kindle for newspapers.  But then the NY Times offered the same content via a free app, so I dumped the Kindle subscription.  I've been paying for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on my Kindle but I'm about to cancel that one too now that I can get it for free via another app.  So the Kindle has quickly become a long form content-only option for me now.

Apps, not browser access.  And since I'm consuming more and more content on my iPhone, this has become a critical distinction.  It's also why I say "no" is the answer to Shanfelt's second question.  To me, the iPhone Safari browser is for emergency use only.  I don't want to access your website that way even if you've "optimized it for mobile access."  A well-designed app is always going to offer UI touches you just won't find in a mobile UI view of your website.  I'm much more likely to access your content if it's available as an ap than I am if I have to use my browser.  There's a reason the phrase, "there's an app for that," is so darned popular!

Far less RSS.  My RSS reader used to be my first and last stop of the day.  Now I rarely use it.

Short form, not long form.  I'm an info-snacking addict.  The Kindle enables it but the iPhone perfects the experience.

More Twitter, less blogs.  18 months ago I was a non-believer in the Twitter revolution.  Now I use it throughout the day.  It has its flaws and one day something will replace it, but it's a nice solution for now.  The time I used to spend reading (and writing) blogs has shifted to Twitter.  I find myself less attracted to the long form writing in blogs and more to the short bursts of Twitter.  FWIW, I used to write 4-6 posts for this blog every week and now I typically only write one, but I also write anywhere from 3-10 or more tweets per day.  Despite that, traffic continues to grow modestly and nobody has complained so it seems like the right approach.

Have you seen similar trends with your reading habits?  Different trends?  No change whatsoever? :-)

A Bold Prediction

I'm not convinced Amazon has a long-term commitment to the Kindle hardware business. In fact, I'll go so out on a limb and predict that Amazon will completely exit the Kindle hardware space within the next 3 years.  Here are a few reasons why:

Zero evolution in 2 years. Compare today's Kindle 2 and DX models to the original Kindle.  The current versions have pretty much the same functionality as the original.  And don't tell me native PDF support was a big change...that should have been there from the start!  I had totally different expectations when I opened my Kindle v1 and saw the "experimental" features.  Two years later, nothing is new there and the original experimental features never changed.  Here's a great example of how there's been no feature evolution: We're all waiting anxiously to see if Amazon will actually add folder functionality.  Are you kidding me?!  That's another feature that should have been there all along.

Amazon isn't a hardware vendor.  Hardware isn't Amazon's specialty.  Far from it.  Just look at the Kindle's design, UI and how it operates and you quickly realize if this is as good as it gets Amazon has no business in the hardware space.  (Btw, how many outstanding software/content companies are also rock stars when it comes to hardware?  I can only think of one: Apple.)

Competitors are passing them by.  B&N's Nook is what the Kindle should have been.  See details here.  I'm not saying the Nook is the answer, but Amazon's lack of innovation is making it easier for new devices to leapfrog the Kindle.

Closed platforms are dead.  Even Apple opens the iPhone platform for extensibility.  Amazon should have not only allowed but encouraged third-party extensions and apps for the device.  What sort of new and exciting functionality would exist for the Kindle today if Amazon would have created a Kindle app store 2 years ago?

Dedicated readers won't be the answer, not for mass.  Content is still critical, but as my O'Reilly colleague Andrew Savikas recently stated so eloquently, "convenience is king."  Mobile, multi-function devices will rule the day.

I was reading my Kindle during a recent cross-country flight.  The passenger next to me said his wife is a big reader and he's thinking about getting her an e-device.  He asked me if I recommend he get her a Kindle.  Sadly, I said, "no."  I told him he's better off checking out the upcoming B&N Nook as well as waiting to see if the rumored Apple device ever materializes.  That's the first time I've ever recommended someone not get a Kindle when they ask me about mine.

I'm not down on Amazon, btw.  I'm forever grateful for the job they've done to spark interest in the e-reader space.  With all due respect to Sony, If it weren't for the Kindle we'd still be waiting for the first commercial success in this space.

I had high hopes back in November of 2007 but Amazon is clearly hedging their hardware bet by offering the Kindle iPhone app as well as the Kindle for PC (beta) and Kindle for Mac (forthcoming) apps.  That's a smart move by Amazon.  If my prediction comes true and they abandon the hardware space in the next three years they'll still be a major e-content player.

Free Content, Registration Required

Author David Meerman Scott recently wrote a terrific blog post about free ebooks and how distribution is affected when registration is required.  It's easy to think that "free is free" and requiring registration shouldn't have much of an impact, but check out the stats in David's post.

OK, the numbers presented there aren't exactly ironclad or statistically irrefutable but still, it's an interesting study.  I tend to agree with David that there's a valuable trade-off in getting your content into more people's hands for possible Twittering, blogging, etc.  In many cases these benefits can greatly outweigh the value of capturing email addresses for future use.

Is the eReader Financial Model Upside Down?

I finally started listening to the free audio version of Chris Anderson's latest book, Free.  I'm only a couple of chapters in and it's interesting so far but since I downloaded it months ago it (once again) shows just how much I tend to ignore all the free stuff I'm hoarding, especially iPhone apps.

That's probably a worthwhile subject for a future post...  For this post, I'd rather think out loud about altering the pricing models for e-reading devices and e-content.

I won't buy a Kindle edition of a book that's more than $9.99.  Why?  Besides the fact that I'm a cheapskate, I guess I'm still bitter about paying almost $300 for an original Kindle, so I expect to "make it up" with cheaper content.  I wonder how many others like me are out there.

I'd say quite a few.  Look at the Kindle book bestseller list.  Even though there are plenty of Kindle editions priced above $9.99 they rarely make the bestseller list.  In fact, as I type these words 14 of the top 25 have a price of $0.00, one is $0.01 and the rest are at or below $9.99.  I only found three books in the top 100 priced above $9.99.  Three.

Why can't a device vendor go with more of a cell phone model, where the low price of the device is subsidized by the longer-term commitment to buying content?  How many Kindles do you suppose Amazon could sell if they priced it at $99, or $49?  The device costs more than that to make, not to mention the cellular charges they pay Sprint, so why would Amazon price device so low?  Hoping that they "make it up in volume" won't help...they'll just lose that much more money in total.

But what if all the ebook editions Amazon sells for the Kindle weren't $9.99 but something much closer to the print book's price on Amazon?  So a $30 book at 33% off would be $20 for the Kindle edition (as opposed to $9.99 currently), pretty much the same as what you'd pay for the print version.  Now there's a bigger margin left over for Amazon to keep part of (to cover the loss on the sale of the device), share some with the publisher/author and even pay Sprint.  And oh, btw, we'd put an end to the model where some publishers are delaying the e-version so as not to cannibalize the print version's sales.  Publishers would be indifferent, if not prefer the e-version since there's no cost for manufacturing, inventory or returns.  Hallelujah!

Additionally, in order to qualify for that low price on the device, the customer would have to commit to a minimum volume of econtent purchases over the next 2 years.  Opt out early and pay a penalty.  It's sounding more and more like a cell phone plan, isn't it?

What's not to like about this model?  The first vendor to adopt it would likely sell a boatload of devices, maybe more than they could manufacture.  It would also protect the value of the intellectual property.  Amazon's $9.99 price on Kindle editions is really cheapening the value of the content.  I used to think it was OK because you can't share an ebook with a friend, but B&N is about to address that problem with the Nook (sort of).  I still think we publishers need to figure out how to add value to ebooks and not just live by quickie p-to-e-conversions, but that was the subject of at least one earlier post.

What do you think?  Is this in the cards?  Will a hardware vendor go this route?  I sure hope so.

B&N's Nook...and Beyond

The big news in e-readers last week was B&N's announcement of their upcoming Nook device.  My first reaction was "meh", but the more I think about it, the more potential I see...not necessarily for the Nook, but rather for the e-reader space.

Let's start with the Nook features I find interesting:

3G Wireless and Wifi -- I blogged about this long ago and have often wondered why Amazon didn't bother offering wifi with the Kindle.  Some said it would be redundant with Whispernet.  I say nonsense, particularly since I use wifi every day with my iPhone 3GS.

Exclusive In-Store Content -- Another smart move, and a way for B&N to encourage Nook owners into their brick-and-mortar outlets.  I'm not sure how successful this will be but it's something Amazon simply can't do.  And if it words, an increase in in-store foot traffic is always a good thing.

eBook Sharing -- Also known as the "LendMe" feature, it's far from perfect but at least it's a first step towards one of the chief complaints about ebooks.

SD Slot -- I have a first-gen Kindle with an SD slot and I use the card all the time.  I still don't understand why Amazon dumped it with Kindle 2.  I ran out of device memory long ago on my Kindle 1 and if you own a Kindle 2 you will too at some point.

Free eBook with Pre-order -- Sometimes it's the little things that matter.  In this case, B&N gives you a copy of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point when you pre-order a Nook.  Won't that be nice knowing that your device will show up with a great book already on it?  And from the publisher's point of view, if you haven't already read The Tipping Point, it will be an introduction to the genius of Gladwell and a chance that you'll want to buy one of his other books.

You may have noticed that I didn't mention the color navigation touch-screen at the bottom of the Nook.  How could I overlook that?  Well, it seems like a bit of a gimmick, but this is the feature that got me thinking.

Without access to an actual Nook (they don't ship till later next month) it's impossible for me to say what this color touchscreen will allow you to do (other than browse a virtual bookshelf).  I'd like to think B&N has additional plans for this area, but we'll have to see.  For example, will B&N open the device up to third-party developers, just like Apple has with the iPhone (and Amazon hasn't with the Kindle)?  Think of all the types of apps that could be developed for this display, not to mention the eInk display itself.  Some would also say they don't need apps for their reader, that they bought it for reading and nothing else.  Gee, before the iPhone we were all pretty content making calls and sending text messages.  It's funny how sometimes you don't know what you want till it's invented.  (It also reminds me of Henry Ford's famous quote about how if he would have asked people what they wanted they would have said "faster horses.")

That would be cool, but let's take that idea one step further.  Why doesn't someone come out with a stripped-down eInk display device with a slot for iPhone connection?  The eInk display wouldn't need 3G/wifi or some of the other features the Kindle, Sony, etc., have.  Make it bare-bones so that it can be sold for under $100.  Then either include a collapsible slot where an iPhone can slide in or just connect it via USB or Bluetooth.  Then you'd use the iPhone for all your purchases/downloads with no connectivity required from the reading device itself.

I've been wanting to have my cake and eat it too with an e-reader.  The combination of a stripped-down eInk device and my iPhone would be perfect.  I'd get the apps, extensibility and connectivity of the iPhone along with the easy-on-the-eyes and insanely long battery life features of eInk.  And, if the eInk device could really be priced below $100 it would make the Kindle sales total look like a rounding error!

Google Editions Should be a Game-Changer

I spent last week in Frankfurt at the book fair and our inaugural Tools of Change (TOC) conference there.  TOC was terrific, but one session in particular grabbed my attention.  Amanda Edmonds, Director of Strategic Partnerships at Google gave a presentation on the much-anticipated Google Editions program.

Google Editions is ebooks, done right.  When it launches you'll be able to buy ebooks in (almost) every format for (almost) every device.  Why "almost"?  According to Amanda, the Kindle will be excluded.

So how can a new service be successful when it ignores the market leading device?  It sounds crazy but my money is on Google.  Customers don't want to be locked into a single format or device.  And while Amazon offers an app so you can read Kindle books on your iPhone, Google Editions will enable much broader access, not just for Kindle and iPhone.

Google Editions will be wildly successful...if it ever materializes.  The service has been rumored for a couple of years now and availability always seems to be "a few months away."  I hope the actual launch happens soon, and I can't wait to see how Amazon responds to it.

How the Kindle Prevents eContent from Evolving

Perhaps I shouldn't single out the Kindle on this one.  What I'm about to say is true for the entire current generation of dedicated e-reader devices, not just the Kindle.  But the Kindle leads the way, so it gets the headline.

The problem with these devices is that they encourage quick print-to-e content conversion and nothing more.  In fact, they even discourage some of the simplest ways of enhancing print-to-e conversions.  Embedded links are a great example.  If you're a Kindle owner how often do you click on those links?  More specifically, how often do you groan as you click on those links, knowing that the browsing experience ahead is painful at best?  The irony is that although the Kindle was the first to include wireless functionality, that feature is really only good for one thing: buying content from Amazon.  Every other time I've used the "experimental" browser I've been disappointed.  That's because, at its heart, the Kindle is a reader and it doesn't encourage any other use.

If you love your Kindle you'd probably say, "so what?...it does what I need it to do."  My point is that as long as we're willing to accept this extremely limited functionality, and not ask for more, there's no incentive for Amazon to enhance it and there's no incentive for publishers to build richer content.

Are you really thrilled with the content that's available on today's dedicated e-readers?  I'm not.  And it's not just color and video that I crave.  I want to see a major leap forward, like when entertainment went from radio to TV, for example.

Transportation is another great analogy.  Years ago, trains were not only a great way to travel, they often represented the only way to get from point A to point B.  Then cars came along and totally changed the transportation industry.  It didn't happen overnight, but think about how much you take for granted now that you're not limited by train schedules, tracks that only go certain places, etc.

Trains still exist today, of course, and they serve an important need.  One-trick dedicated e-readers will probably exist for a long time too, but we desperately need the flexibility of something more than dedicated devices.  Smart phones and netbooks are nice too, but the form factors aren't perfect and battery life is often an issue.

The consumer experience could be greatly improved by a multi-function device with rich content options.  If you're a publisher and you're worried about the race to lower prices for quick print-to-e conversions you too should want more powerful devices since they'll allow you to charge more for the additional functionality of your content.

Have You Registered for this Week's Online TOC Conference?

This is just a friendly reminder that it's not too late to register for the first online extension of O'Reilly's popular Tools of Change conference.  The event takes place this Thursday from 12-3:30 ET and features 3 sessions of panel discussion.  I'm moderating the ebook pricing panel which consists of Hugh McGuire (from LibriVox.org/BookOven.com), Neelan Choksi (from Lexcycle),  Trip Adler (from Scribd) and Michael Tamblyn (from Shortcovers).

The panel and I have been working on the right set of questions for the session and we're just about finished.  If you have a question or two you'd like this panel to discuss please send them to me today or tomorrow via email at jwikert[at]oreilly.com.

Publishing Business Virtual Conference & Expo

Book Business magazine is hosting a terrific-looking FREE online conference next month.  The event is called Publishing Business Virtual Conference & Expo and it takes place on October 29th from 10 AM to 5:30 PM (ET).  The agenda (PDF) features a number of noteworty speakers including O'Reilly's very own e-content guru, Andrew Savikas.

Given the current state of the economy and the challenge in adding to existing travel plans, I love the idea of a virtual conference like this.  My only concern is being able to spend 7-1/2 hours online and dedicate my undivided attention to it.

Being there is one thing.  Being virtual means I'll be distracted by lots of other things.  With that in mind I hope the conference organizers record the event so that I can go back later and catch the pieces I'm highly likely to miss.

Either way, you owe it to yourself to register now.  After all, the price is unbeatable! :-)

More Ebook Survey Results

My apologies for not following-up on the promise I made in this earlier post to provide more information in a subsequent post.  I got distracted on a few other things but I finally managed to spend some time with the detailed results spreadsheet.  Here's what I found...

Which ebook format do you prefer?
PDF rules the day.  It wins out for a variety of reasons including portability, how it renders and even the fact that it's so mature.  Epub was probably second on this list, but it was a distant second at best.  And out of the 2K+ responses I only noticed a few references to "Kindle" or "mobi".

What other publishers are doing innovative things with ebooks?
Both Pragmatic and Manning were cited frequently in response to this question.  A number of responses also noted O'Reilly's "liberal and useful ebook policy" though, so our DRM-free approach definitely resonates with this crowd.  I say that mostly because other publishers were criticized in responses here for their use of DRM.  Btw, Pragmatic and Manning mostly got kudos here for their respective "beta book" programs where you get access to the content before the book goes to press.  We offer the same feature through our Rough Cuts program but we apparently haven't communicated it as effectively as we could, at least according to these survey results!

What can we do to improve your experience with O'Reilly's ebooks?
Price was a common theme here.  Customers definitely want to see the prices remain low, but I think that's largely because the products are mostly quick conversions from print format.  I still believe there's an opportunity to increase prices, but only if there's added value to what exists today.  Another popular answer here was the ability to share notes with others.  I'm still blown away by the fact that Amazon built wireless functionality into the Kindle but didn't offer this sort of collaboration option.

What features should the next generation of ebooks include?
Just to show how simplistic today's ebook offerings are, some of the most common responses here were simple things like including links and adding video.  Not exactly rocket science but these are also things that are currently missing in ebooks.  I also liked the suggestion of improving the errata process in books, mostly through automatic updates and/or overlays that show what's changed from one version to the next.  Think of it as version control brought to books.  Again, not revolutionary but it's not something you typically find in most ebooks right now.