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    © 2012, Joseph B. Wikert
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« The Future of Dedicated eBook Readers | Main | Scoble's Interview with Tim O'Reilly »

December 31, 2008

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David Crotty

Simple numbers will give you the answer regarding the future of stand-alone readers: they're going to fail. Think of it this way, looking at the numbers in this NY Times article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/24/technology/24kindle.html?_r=1&hp
Kindle: 260,000 units
Sony eReader: 300,000 units

Then look at the iPhone numbers, 6,000,000 confirmed, expected to have exceeded 10,000,000 by the end of 2008. And that's only one device from one company. Make a common file format that can be read on a Blackberry and an Android phone and the market gets even bigger. As a publisher, where would you focus your efforts?

Factor in that most people are willing to pay to have a cel phone, but getting folks to pony up $300 for a device to read books is not an easy sell (especially when the books still need to be paid for). You can buy a book and read it on the phone you already have paid for, or you can pay $300 plus the price of that book to read it. Which makes more sense?

Also think in terms of the costs of production for the device, and how the increased scale gets you to a point where the device is trivially cheap, or even free, and you can employ the business model where the handle is free and you sell the razor blades. More on the economics here:
http://www.locusmag.com/Features/2008/03/cory-doctorow-put-not-your-faith-in.html

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